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U.S. housing market finally reaches a turning point
NEW YORK - May 16, 2012 - Home values will start to climb again and related consumer industries will grow in 2012 and beyond as the U.S. housing market finally turns the corner, according to a new study released today by The Demand Institute, a new nonprofit, non-advocacy group formed in February by The Conference Board and Nielsen.
According to the Institute, the housing market recovery will have "far-reaching impacts in the coming years across the United States and international markets as U.S. consumers increase their spending on buying, renovating, furnishing and maintaining their homes." The Institute's report, The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand, predicts that average home prices will increase by up to 1 percent in the second half of 2012. By 2014, home prices will increase by as much as 2.5 percent. From 2015 to 2017, the study projects annual increases between 3 and 4 percent, though unevenly nationwide. The strongest markets "could capture average gains of 5 percent or more in the coming years." "In these initial years, the prime driver of recovery won't be new home construction, but rather demand for rental properties," says Louise Keely, chief research officer at The Demand Institute and a co-author of the report. "This is a remarkable change from previous recoveries. It is a measure of just how severe the Great Recession has been that such a wide swath of Americans had to delay, scale back, or put off entirely their dreams of homeownership." Bart van Ark, chief economist at The Conference Board and co-author of the report, says he doesn't expect to see the homeownership rate to change. "Over 80 percent of Americans in recent surveys still agree that buying a home is the best long-term investment they can make," van Ark says. "What will be intriguing to watch is how their aspirations around homeownership are affected by this period of extended austerity." Between 2006 and 2011, some $7 trillion in American wealth was wiped out when home prices dropped 30 percent after dramatic climb in valuations during the housing bubble. Looking forward, the moderate growth expectations for coming years suggest a return to normalcy. As home prices continue to drop and interest rates fall further, first-time buyers and others who remained relatively cautious will be drawn back into the housing market. And, as the market recovers, so too will consumer spending. "As the U.S. housing market strengthens, almost every consumer-facing industry will be impacted in the coming years," said Mark Leiter, chairman of The Demand Institute. "Business and government leaders will benefit by fully understanding the nature of this recovery. In doing so they will be better able to anticipate how consumer demand will evolve, and to formulate critical business and policy |
Government: First house price increase since 2007
WASHINGTON - May 23, 2012 - U.S. house prices rose 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2012 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index (HPI).
HPI price changes are generally smaller than other indicators because they're based on same-home selling prices for homes under government-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The purchase-only index is based on more than 6 million repeat sales transactions. Comparing year-to-year, the seasonally adjusted house prices rose 0.5 percent compared to first quarter 2011. Comparing month-to-month, FHFA's seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 1.8 percent from February. "Consistent with other housing market indicators, the FHFA HPI showed stronger house prices in the first quarter, most notably in March," says FHFA Principal Economist Andrew Leventis. "Increased affordability and a somewhat smaller inventory of homes for sale are positively impacting house prices." Findings: * The seasonally adjusted purchase-only HPI rose in the first quarter in 30 states and the District of Columbia. * The top five annual increases were Hawaii (10.3 percent), Washington, DC (9.8 percent), Iowa (5.7 percent), Florida (4.7 percent) and North Dakota (4.4 percent). © 2012 Florida Realtors® |
