The following information may be useful to you if you haven't seen it before.
May 21, 2009 – The Federal Reserve expects the U.S. economy to improve in coming months, even as policymakers downgraded their outlook for all of 2009 and said the unemployment rate could approach 10 percent.Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues continue to believe that business sales and factory production will begin to recover gradually during the second half of this year as President Barack Obama’s stimulus package and the Fed’s aggressive efforts to lift the country out of recession take hold. They also pointed to signs that the recession’s grip was easing in the current quarter, according to documents released Wednesday.
At the Fed’s last meeting on April 28-29, policymakers opted not to take any new steps to shore up the economy after launching a $1.2 trillion effort in March. But some members last month said those plans for buying government debt and mortgage securities may need to be expanded to speed a recovery.“Participants noted some improvement in financial conditions in recent months, signs that consumer spending was leveling out and tentative indications that activity in the housing sector might be nearing its bottom,” the documents said.That’s consistent with observations made earlier this month by Bernanke, who gave his most optimistic prediction about the end of the recession, saying he expected the economy to begin growing again later this year.In fact, the Fed’s staff bumped up its forecast for economic growth for the second half of this year, although a figure wasn’t provided.
Even with those positive signals, the economy’s performance for this year as a whole is expected to be dismal, partly reflecting the 6.1 percent annualized drop in economic activity in the first quarter.Under the Fed’s new projections, the economy will shrink this year between 1.3 and 2 percent. The old forecast said the economy could contract between 0.5 and 1.3 percent.The unemployment rate may rise as high as 9.6 percent, higher than the old forecast of 8.8 percent. The jobless rate bolted to 8.9 percent in April, the highest in a quarter-century.The predictions are based on what the Fed calls its “central tendency,” which excludes the three highest and three lowest forecasts made by Fed officials. The Fed also gives a range of all the forecasts that showed some officials expect the jobless rate to hit 10 percent this year.
To revive the economy, the Fed has cut its key interest rate to a record low near zero and is expected to hold it there well into next year. The Fed also has turned to unconventional tools to lower interest rates and spur spending, which would help bolster economic activity.All members agreed with “waiting to see how the economy and financial conditions respond to the policy actions already in train,” according to separate minutes of the April meeting. However, they held the door open to additional action if needed.
The Fed at its meeting in March launched a bold $1.2 trillion economic-revival effort. It agreed to starting buying up to $300 billion worth of government debt over the next six months and to boost purchases of mortgage securities and debt from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.At the April meeting, some Fed policymakers said additional purchases “might well be warranted at some point to spur a more rapid pace of recovery.”The Fed has been battling the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, which has plunged the country into the longest recession since War World II.
With all the shocks to the economy, its recovery will be gradual. That will keep unemployment elevated well into 2011 and it could take time for the economy to get back to a path of full health in the longer term, the Fed documents said. Most Fed policymakers indicated that they expected “the economy to take five or six years” for that to happen, but their estimates for growth over the next few years are more optimistic.
The Fed expects the economy to grow next year between 2 and 3 percent. It should then pick up more speed in 2011, growing between 3.5 and 4.8 percent, according to the “central tendency” projections. The unemployment rate should drop to between 9 and 9.5 percent next year. It should dip to between 7.7 and 8.5 percent in 2011.Private economists consider an unemployment rate around 5 percent to be normal. Some private economists don’t believe that will happen until 2013 and questioned the rosier overall outlook for next year.The Fed projected “very low” inflation for this year, with prices rising only between 0.6 and 0.9 percent. With a gradual recovery expected, prices should only inch up in 2010 and 2011.
On another matter, the Fed policymakers continued to resist calls from lawmakers on Capitol Hill to reveal the identities of banks and other financial institutions that draw emergency loans and participate in other Fed credit programs. Fed policymakers said such disclosure would be viewed “as a sign of financial weakness” and that the “resulting stigma would undermine the effectiveness” of the programs, which are intended to promote financial stability and economic recovery
.Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press, Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer. All rights reserved.
There continues to be some good property deal in the Keys and if you have good credit, loans are available at very low interest rates.. If your a first time home buyer there is the Federal Tax credit of up to $8,000.
On another subject the fishing has been terrific with great Mahi Mahi, Yellow Tail Snapper and Tarpon catches being reported daily. There has also been numerous Sail Fish around and Black Fin Tuna.
Rob Skeel , Realtor
Cell --305-393-6300 Email--rob@robskeel.com
Century 21 Keysearch Realty--800-541-5019
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Prospects for Florida’s recovery heat up, economists say
The weather is beautiful and the "Dolphin" fishing is heating up in the Upper Keys.
Additionally, there is good news for home sellers & buyers, the first quarter home sales figures are in and the number of houses sold compared to a year ago are up. But, the prices have went down so it is still a buyers market. Financing is available from numerous sources including FHA and the first time home buyer program is in place with up to an $8,000 tax credit.
The following is a recent article regarding the economic recovery prediction for Florida that may be of interest to you.
– After two long years of recession, economists are beginning to see signs that the economy’s recovery is finally in sight. South Florida home sales are picking up, Wall Street has staged some solid rallies and even consumer confidence is rising.But the road to recovery will be uneven. Economists say that an uptick in business spending will lead the way, followed by federal government stimulus projects that will create some jobs. Consumers, unfortunately, are likely to be the last to see good times return, because widespread unemployment – which is now just a notch below 10 percent – won’t start to go down until after the recovery is well under way.It has been rough, but economists say it’s always that way for Florida.“It performs better in good times, but during bad times, in recessions, it is one of the worst performing states in the nation,” said Moody’s Economy.com economist Chris Lafakis. “And during times of expansion it is one of the best.”Some experts say they already see the early signs of such progress.“The negative numbers just start getting smaller or they stop falling or they fall at a slower rate,” said SunTrust Chief Economist Gregory Miller. It’s like you tumbled out of a boat a while ago and “now we’re at the stage of swimming back to the surface.”Other economists agree that the worst may be over as soon as this summer. Consumers surely have had enough, judging by the strong jump in Floridians’ consumer confidence this month.
Here’s how economists say the state will find its way out of the slump:Business-led recovery Economists say the recovery will begin with an increase in business capital spending, as companies rebuild inventories or upgrade technology or send business travelers back out on the road.At some South Florida companies, capital spending already has increased and begun to pay off. Last year, Stress Free Corporate Housing, which provides temporary living arrangements for executives, says the audio-visual equipment it installed in its new Weston office is helping to bring in new business.The firm wanted to hold employee conferences and save on travel expenses. But it also began using the equipment for Webinars – seminars via the Internet – for its clients.President and Chief Executive Officer Darin Karp said his firm is about to sign a deal with a Fortune 500 company to provide temporary housing for executives from Asia and the Middle East who need to come to Florida for training.“We’re definitely seeing glimmers of hope off the first quarter and the beginning of this quarter,” Karp said. “We have some big stuff on our plate, and it’s attributed to doing the Webinars.
”Stimulus spending" An increase in government spending is expected in the fourth quarter, as states and cities pump out the $787 billion in federal stimulus money to build roads and other projects. That influx of cash will lead to more jobs, at least in construction.Even though the stimulus law was enacted in February, government is still crafting detailed plans and regulations for the federal package, so it’s unclear precisely how many millions will be earmarked for Florida.“We will begin to see some impact of the stimulus legislation in the last quarter of this year,” said economist Antonio Villamil, dean of the School of Business at St. Thomas University.
Confidence rises Consumer confidence – a measure of how willing people are to spend on big-ticket items – is already rising. The University of Florida consumer confidence survey issued earlier this week showed the index jumped to 71 in April, up from 65 in March, which is close to the low reached during the last recession in 1991.The importance of the jump is that consumer confidence is a forward-looking economic indicator, one that is often a sign that consumer spending will rise, too.
Employment to lag- Employment rates aren’t expected to rise until recovery of other sectors is under way. Only after growth returns in the overall economy will businesses be comfortable enough to begin to create jobs again. Employment is key to consumers’ recovery. Don’t look for consumer spending to increase until after employment stabilizes, economists say.“Every business cycle is unique, but they get going in fits and starts,” said economist Manuel Lasaga, president of Strategic Information Analysis in Miami.
“This [recovery] will be weaker than normal.” Strong growth, he said, won’t appear until 2010.And some sectors seem to be hurt so badly, their recovery is not at hand. Surely, housing remains deeply troubled. Manufacturing, too, is waiting for signs of recovery.“We’re not seeing that [any increase in demand] yet frankly,” said Tom Kennedy, a CPA who is chairman of the South Florida Manufacturers Association. Kennedy is controller of R.L. Schreiber in Pompano Beach, which produces food products for the food service industry. The credit crunch, he said, is making the business environment even more difficult.When will it end? The economy should begin to pull out of recession around the end of summer, according to several economists. At the latest, look for it early next year, others say.“We are in the fourth phase of the recession,” said SunTrust’s Miller. That’s the pre-recovery phase, he said. Next is the turnaround.It’s a little early yet, and the signs are still faint.“You really have to look long and hard to find any signs of strength in the economy,” said Mark Vitner, Wachovia’s senior economist. “But it’s not so hard to find areas where the economy had been in a free fall and now is just merely declining.”For those businesses looking forward to the turnaround, they’ve set their sights on year’s end.“People are getting new budgets for purchasing at the end of the third quarter, the fourth quarter. A lot of lights are coming on,” said Joel Ledlow, chief executive officer of ScheduAll, a Hollywood firm that produces management software systems for broadcasters and media. “People are saying they have cut about as much as they can cut. Now they’re ready for some very strategic investments.”Copyright © 2009 Sun Sentinel, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., Harriet Johnson Brackey. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
Additionally, there is good news for home sellers & buyers, the first quarter home sales figures are in and the number of houses sold compared to a year ago are up. But, the prices have went down so it is still a buyers market. Financing is available from numerous sources including FHA and the first time home buyer program is in place with up to an $8,000 tax credit.
The following is a recent article regarding the economic recovery prediction for Florida that may be of interest to you.
– After two long years of recession, economists are beginning to see signs that the economy’s recovery is finally in sight. South Florida home sales are picking up, Wall Street has staged some solid rallies and even consumer confidence is rising.But the road to recovery will be uneven. Economists say that an uptick in business spending will lead the way, followed by federal government stimulus projects that will create some jobs. Consumers, unfortunately, are likely to be the last to see good times return, because widespread unemployment – which is now just a notch below 10 percent – won’t start to go down until after the recovery is well under way.It has been rough, but economists say it’s always that way for Florida.“It performs better in good times, but during bad times, in recessions, it is one of the worst performing states in the nation,” said Moody’s Economy.com economist Chris Lafakis. “And during times of expansion it is one of the best.”Some experts say they already see the early signs of such progress.“The negative numbers just start getting smaller or they stop falling or they fall at a slower rate,” said SunTrust Chief Economist Gregory Miller. It’s like you tumbled out of a boat a while ago and “now we’re at the stage of swimming back to the surface.”Other economists agree that the worst may be over as soon as this summer. Consumers surely have had enough, judging by the strong jump in Floridians’ consumer confidence this month.
Here’s how economists say the state will find its way out of the slump:Business-led recovery Economists say the recovery will begin with an increase in business capital spending, as companies rebuild inventories or upgrade technology or send business travelers back out on the road.At some South Florida companies, capital spending already has increased and begun to pay off. Last year, Stress Free Corporate Housing, which provides temporary living arrangements for executives, says the audio-visual equipment it installed in its new Weston office is helping to bring in new business.The firm wanted to hold employee conferences and save on travel expenses. But it also began using the equipment for Webinars – seminars via the Internet – for its clients.President and Chief Executive Officer Darin Karp said his firm is about to sign a deal with a Fortune 500 company to provide temporary housing for executives from Asia and the Middle East who need to come to Florida for training.“We’re definitely seeing glimmers of hope off the first quarter and the beginning of this quarter,” Karp said. “We have some big stuff on our plate, and it’s attributed to doing the Webinars.
”Stimulus spending" An increase in government spending is expected in the fourth quarter, as states and cities pump out the $787 billion in federal stimulus money to build roads and other projects. That influx of cash will lead to more jobs, at least in construction.Even though the stimulus law was enacted in February, government is still crafting detailed plans and regulations for the federal package, so it’s unclear precisely how many millions will be earmarked for Florida.“We will begin to see some impact of the stimulus legislation in the last quarter of this year,” said economist Antonio Villamil, dean of the School of Business at St. Thomas University.
Confidence rises Consumer confidence – a measure of how willing people are to spend on big-ticket items – is already rising. The University of Florida consumer confidence survey issued earlier this week showed the index jumped to 71 in April, up from 65 in March, which is close to the low reached during the last recession in 1991.The importance of the jump is that consumer confidence is a forward-looking economic indicator, one that is often a sign that consumer spending will rise, too.
Employment to lag- Employment rates aren’t expected to rise until recovery of other sectors is under way. Only after growth returns in the overall economy will businesses be comfortable enough to begin to create jobs again. Employment is key to consumers’ recovery. Don’t look for consumer spending to increase until after employment stabilizes, economists say.“Every business cycle is unique, but they get going in fits and starts,” said economist Manuel Lasaga, president of Strategic Information Analysis in Miami.
“This [recovery] will be weaker than normal.” Strong growth, he said, won’t appear until 2010.And some sectors seem to be hurt so badly, their recovery is not at hand. Surely, housing remains deeply troubled. Manufacturing, too, is waiting for signs of recovery.“We’re not seeing that [any increase in demand] yet frankly,” said Tom Kennedy, a CPA who is chairman of the South Florida Manufacturers Association. Kennedy is controller of R.L. Schreiber in Pompano Beach, which produces food products for the food service industry. The credit crunch, he said, is making the business environment even more difficult.When will it end? The economy should begin to pull out of recession around the end of summer, according to several economists. At the latest, look for it early next year, others say.“We are in the fourth phase of the recession,” said SunTrust’s Miller. That’s the pre-recovery phase, he said. Next is the turnaround.It’s a little early yet, and the signs are still faint.“You really have to look long and hard to find any signs of strength in the economy,” said Mark Vitner, Wachovia’s senior economist. “But it’s not so hard to find areas where the economy had been in a free fall and now is just merely declining.”For those businesses looking forward to the turnaround, they’ve set their sights on year’s end.“People are getting new budgets for purchasing at the end of the third quarter, the fourth quarter. A lot of lights are coming on,” said Joel Ledlow, chief executive officer of ScheduAll, a Hollywood firm that produces management software systems for broadcasters and media. “People are saying they have cut about as much as they can cut. Now they’re ready for some very strategic investments.”Copyright © 2009 Sun Sentinel, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., Harriet Johnson Brackey. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
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